South Florida Housing Market Outlook 2026: Sales Expected to Surge as Rates Ease

What Rising Demand, Lower Mortgage Rates, and Shifting Buyer Trends Mean for South Florida Real Estate

The 2026 housing market is shaping up to be one of renewed momentum – especially in South Florida, where demand has remained consistently strong. According to National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, existing-home sales nationwide are projected to rise by 14% in 2026, marking a long-awaited rebound. This expected upswing is great news for markets like Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Boca Raton, and surrounding coastal communities that have continued to attract buyers from across the country.

Lower Mortgage Rates Bring New Opportunities to South Florida

Mortgage rates are projected to average around 6% in 2026, offering modest but meaningful relief for buyers who have been on the sidelines. In a high-demand region like South Florida – where lifestyle, climate, and job growth continue to draw relocations – this shift could unlock a new wave of activity.

“Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,” Yun said. “Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining.”

South Florida’s strong job market, booming local economy, and ongoing demand from out-of-state and international buyers mean these effects may be even more pronounced locally.

Home Prices Still Rising – But Stability Is Improving

Nationally, home prices are forecast to rise 4%, and South Florida is expected to remain above that pace due to limited inventory and premium coastal demand. While supply remains tight, new construction in areas like Pompano Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami continues to add options for buyers seeking modern, turnkey properties.

Still, the easing of mortgage rates and slightly improving inventory could help balance out some of the price pressure in 2026.

South Florida Continues to Attract Lifestyle-Driven Buyers

Jessica Lautz, NAR’s deputy chief economist, shared new demographic insights showing that today’s typical home buyer is older and more lifestyle-focused. The average home buyer is now 59, with many relocating to be closer to friends and family – or to enjoy warmer weather and a better quality of life.

This trend aligns perfectly with South Florida’s buyer profile:

• Northeastern and Midwestern transplants seeking sunshine
• Retirees looking for walkable coastal communities
• Buyers prioritizing resort-style living, beaches, and vibrant urban centers

For many, South Florida offers exactly the lifestyle upgrade they are seeking.

First-Time Buyers Face Tougher Conditions – But South Florida Job Growth Helps

First-time buyer participation has dropped to 21%, the lowest on record, with affordability challenges heightened by rising rents and student loan debt. While South Florida remains a competitive market, strong employment sectors—such as tech, healthcare, hospitality, and finance—continue to attract younger buyers who can leverage job opportunities to enter the market with the right timing.

The slight decline in mortgage rates projected for 2026 may provide modest relief.

Real Estate Agents Remain Essential in South Florida’s Competitive Market

In a diverse and fast-moving market like South Florida—where new construction, waterfront properties, luxury condos, and emerging neighborhoods all move at different speeds – expert guidance is crucial for:

• Pricing homes competitively
• Marketing to local, national, and international buyers
• Navigating competitive offers
• Understanding unique coastal regulations and flood zones

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